Obama Headed For Decisive Victory

ROCHESTER, N.Y. – November 3, 2008 – The final Harris Poll finds Senator Barack Obama with an eight point lead over Senator John McCain among likely voters. This is the largest lead shown by the Harris Poll in this election campaign and compares with six point leads in the two previous Harris Polls. With the few remaining undecided votes assigned to the candidates, this final pre-election poll shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by 52% to 44% percent. If this is an accurate prediction, it will be the first time that the winning candidate has won more than half the votes since George H.W. Bush won in 1988.

This poll also finds one percent of the vote going to Independent candidate Ralph Nader and one percent to Libertarian Bob Barr.

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll®, a new nationwide survey of 5,210 U.S. adults, of whom 3,946 are likely voters, surveyed online between October 30 and November 3, 2008 by Harris Interactive^®.

A comparison of the number of adults whom we believe to be likely voters in this election and in other recent presidential elections, suggests that the turnout in this election will be exceptionally high, with over 60 percent of all adults voting (compared to 55% in 2004 and 51% in 2000).

This is likely to be the highest turnout since 1960, when 63.1% of adults voted. Reasons for this high turnout include very high levels of interest and excitement that are likely to trigger high turnout among Hispanics, African-Americans and younger voters.

Three in ten (29%) of all likely voters had already voted before we interviewed them. Among these early voters Senator Obama leads Senator McCain by 55% to 40%, possibly reflecting a higher level of excitement among Obama voters.

Like the other national polls, this Harris Poll gives our final prediction of the popular vote, not a prediction of the Electoral College. However, a swing from President Bush’s margin of victory in the popular vote in 2004 and an 8% Obama margin of victory is likely to result in Obama winning between 350 and 380 electoral college votes (out of the total 538). This estimate could be wrong if the national swing toward Obama is substantially larger or smaller in the battleground states, as could be the case.

Table 4 shows how the proportion of likely voters in various demographic and other key groups are likely to vote for the different candidates. Because the survey was conducted online we were able to survey 3,946 likely voters, a larger sample than those used in any telephone polls. This allows us to look at the voting intentions of relatively small sub-groups in the population.

• While Echo Boomers (aged 18-31) will vote overwhelmingly for Obama by 28 points, McCain leads by 13 points among Matures (aged 63 and older);
• Obama leads among both men (by 5 points) and women (by 10 points);
• Obama not only has a massive 83 point lead among Blacks, as predicted, he also as a 27 point lead among Hispanic voters;
• Unlike previous Democratic contenders who usually did worse among higher income households, Obama leads among all four income groups; and,
• Adults in households with children living at home divide almost equally, 48% for Obama and 47% for McCain.

There has been some controversy in this election as to whether some telephone polls may be biased because they do not include the growing number of people who have cell phones but no landlines. Because this Harris Poll was conducted online and not by telephone, it includes a sample of 649 likely voters who are "cell phone only." Among this group, Barack Obama leads John McCain by 57% to 38%..

• While a modest 51% to 47% majority of Catholics voters intend to vote for Obama, McCain leads by 57% to 40% among White Catholics;
• McCain leads by 9 points among Protestants and by fully 34% among White Protestants;
• Obama has a huge 52 point lead among Jews; and,
• McCain has a 23 point lead among Mormons.

"Next, we’d like to get your opinion about how you might vote in the election for president on November 4^th, 2008. If the presidential election were held today, for whom would you most likely vote?"

If "Not Sure": "Well, if you had to say, toward whom would you lean for president? Even if you only have a very slight preference, we would like to know what it is."

Base: Likely voters with not sure responses apportioned

"Next, we’d like to get your opinion about how you might vote in the election for president on November 4^th, 2008. If the presidential election were held today, for whom would you most likely vote?"

If "Not Sure": "Well, if you had to say, toward whom would you lean for president? Even if you only have a very slight preference, we would like to know what it is."

Base: Likely voters

"Next, we’d like to get your opinion about how you might vote in the election for president on November 4^th, 2008. If the presidential election were held today, for whom would you most likely vote?"

If "Not Sure": "Well, if you had to say, toward whom would you lean for president? Even if you only have a very slight preference, we would like to know what it is."

Base: Likely voters

* Percent of early voters is 28% of all likely voters

Red/Bush States indicate states that George Bush won in 2004 by 5% or less – Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, and Ohio

Blue/Kerry States indicate states that John Kerry won in 2004 by 5% or less – Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin

"Next, we’d like to get your opinion about how you might vote in the election for president on November 4^th, 2008. If the presidential election were held today, for whom would you most likely vote?"

If "Not Sure": "Well, if you had to say, toward whom would you lean for president? Even if you only have a very slight preference, we would like to know what it is."

Base: Likely voters

Note: Responses for other candidates and "Not Sures" omitted.

This Harris Poll^® was conducted online within the United States between October 30 and November 3, 2008 among 5,210 adults (aged 18 and over), of whom 3,946 were likely voters. Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

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