Optimistic Expectation For Change, Only a Third of the Public Thinks Obama Will be too Liberal, Most People Expect Less Gridlock

ROCHESTER, N.Y. – December 9, 2008 – During the presidential election campaign, Barack Obama was often labeled a liberal and his policy proposals described as "socialist." The Harris Poll®, finds that while about a third (35%) of all adults, including 74% of Republicans and 33% of Independents, fear that the Obama administration will be too liberal – most people do not believe this. The poll also finds that a 59% to 12% majority expects that there will be less gridlock in Washington under a newly elected Democratic president and a Democratically-controlled Congress.

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll, a new nationwide survey of 2,126 U.S. adults surveyed online between November 10 and 17, 2008 by Harris Interactive^®.

Other interesting, and somewhat contradictory, findings about divided government include:

• A 44% plurality – but not a majority – states as their preference a Democratic president with a Democratically-controlled Congress, as we will have after January 20^th. Only 27% of adults would prefer a Republican president and a Republican-controlled Congress. The remaining 29% would prefer divided government with either a Democratic president (16%) or a Republican president (13%).
• However, this majority preference for either a Democratically-controlled government or a Republican-controlled government flies in the face of a theoretical belief in the benefits of divided government. On balance, more people (43%) prefer divided government – with different parties controlling the Congress and the White House – than single party government (21%). However, over one-third of adults (36%) are not sure.

Expectations are high that President Obama and the Democrats will be able to pass major legislation and that these new policies will not be too liberal. High expectations may be good – as long as they are met. But they also set the scene for possible disappointment if they are not met.

Another conclusion is that a theoretical belief in the benefits of divided government may be overcome by the desire to see one’s own party controlling both the executive and legislative branches of government. Among Republicans, however, now out of power in January in both the White House and Congress, only two-thirds (66%) want to see their party controlling both. Since they are out of power, the feeling may be that even divided government would be better.

"Thinking of the Obama administration, which is closes to your view?"

Base: All adults

"Over the past few years, Washington DC has been accused of being caught in a gridlock, with not much getting accomplished. In January, the President and both Houses of the Congress will be from the same party. Which is closest to your opinion?

Base: All adults

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% because of rounding

"Overall, do you think it is good or bad for the country to have a president and a majority in Congress belonging to different parties?"

Base: All adults

Of these, which would be your preference?"

Base: All adults

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% because of rounding

This Harris Poll^® was conducted online within the United States between November 10 and 17, 2008 among 2,126 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

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