THE HARRIS POLL #55, November 7, 2001

Internet Penetration Has Leveled Out Over The Last 12 Months

by Humphrey Taylor

The proportion of all adults who are online at work, at home or from any other location such as school, library or cyber café has remained virtually unchanged at 64% for the last 12 months. This translates into approximately 127 million adults aged 18 and over, up from 121 million in the previous year. These are the results of The Harris Poll^® of over 2,000 adults surveyed by telephone in September and October 2001 by Harris Interactive^SM.

What is remarkable about these results is that this is the first time since the rapid growth of Internet use began in 1994 that we have not seen sizeable increases in Internet penetration over a twelve month period.

The proportion of all adults online was 9% in 1995, rose to 30% by 1997, to 56% by 1998 and 63% by this time last year. The one percentage point increase from last year to 64% this year is not statistically significant.

This year's most recent survey finds that 52% are online from home, a marginal increase from 49% this time last year, that 28% are online at work, and that 19% are online at some other location such as a school, library or cyber café.

Another trend, tracked by The Harris Poll® shows 73% of all adults using a computer at home, work or some other location. This number is also virtually identical to the 74% reported a year ago. It means that 88% of all those who use a computer are online, and 12% are not.

The online population continues to be skewed toward to the more educated, more affluent and the non-elderly. However, 19% of those online have household incomes of $25,000 or less (compared to 25% of the total U.S. adult population), 38% have never been to college (compared to 52% of the adult population) and 7% are over 65 (compared to 16% of the adult population).

Only history will tell us if the failure of the Internet to increase its penetration over the last 12 months is merely a pause, to be followed by more growth, or a plateau beyond which it will not increase much for some time. Obviously, the weakening economy could inhibit growth of Internet penetration over the next year or two.

It is notable that the rapid growth of Internet penetration appears to have stopped at, or soon after, the crash of the Internet stocks on the NASDAQ.

Base: All Adults

Base: All Adults

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NOTES:

1. All samples of 2,000 or more adults, conducted by telephone.

2. "Use Internet" includes all adults who use Internet from home, offices, school, library or other location.

* Estimated from other sources.

(September-October 2001)

Base: All Adults

NUMBERS OF ADULTS WHO ARE ONLINE

Base: All Adults

This issue of The Harris Poll^® was conducted by telephone within the United States between October 17–22, 2001 among a nationwide cross section of 1,011 adults and a similar survey of 1,012 adults interviewed between September 19–24. Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults and number of voice/telephone lines in the household were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.

In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of plus or minus 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (non-response), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is difficult or impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.

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Q151-180