Financial Times/Harris Poll: The French Presidential Election
LONDON and ROCHESTER, NY – 16 April 2007 – Results of the latest
Financial Times/Harris Poll show that, according to adults in France polled,
there is essentially a tie between Nicolas Sarkozy (23%) and Segolene Royal
(22%) as to who would make the best president of their country. Interestingly,
in France, there are still 29 percent who say they don’t know enough about the
candidates to have an opinion or who are not sure. This is a large percentage,
bigger than the numbers supporting either of the two top contenders (Sarkozy and
Royal). The poll suggests that Francois Bayrou will not get enough votes to
prevent a second stage run-off between Sarkozy and Royal.
Adults in Great Britain (89%), Germany (82%), Italy (66%), and Spain (61%),
say they do not know enough to have an opinion or are not sure of who would make
the best French president for their country.
This FT/Harris Poll was conducted online by Harris Interactive among a
total of 5,526 adults (aged 16 and over) within France, Germany, Great Britain
and Spain and adults (aged 18 and over) in Italy between 28th March
and 12th April 2007.
Outside of France, there is clearly not much interest in this French race,
with majorities stating that they do not know enough about the presidential
candidates to have an opinion or are not sure. Given the importance of the
French elections, this lack of interest reflects the tendency of Europeans and
their media to focus on national issues and events and not those on the rest of
the EU.
When asked, "In your opinion, do the French presidential
elections signal a positive or negative change of direction in Europe?" in
each country very large numbers indicate the election signals no change or they
are not sure; however, among those who did indicate an opinion, most see the
French presidential elections as positive. In Great Britain adults were split
with 12% saying positive, and 9% saying negative. In Germany three times as many
indicated the elections signal positive change of direction in Europe than said
negative. In Spain adults were eight times more likely to say positive than
negative; in Italy sentiment was six times positive to negative; and in France
(5 times pos. to neg.) there was greater optimism about the French presidential
elections.
TABLE 1
BEST CHOICE FOR
FRENCH PRESIDENT
Q1650_1_1 "As a resident of your country, which candidate
do you think would be the best French president for…your country?’"
Base: All adults in the five EU countries
|
|
Great Britain |
France |
Italy |
Spain |
Germany |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Unweighted Base |
1,146 |
1,114 |
1,068 |
1,075 |
1,123 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Segolene Royal |
4 |
22 |
17 |
18 |
9 |
|
Nicolas Sarkozy |
4 |
23 |
8 |
10 |
3 |
|
Francois Bayrou |
1 |
16 |
5 |
2 |
3 |
|
Jean-Marie Le Pen |
2 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
|
Do not know enough about them to have an opinion |
69 |
12 |
47 |
45 |
57 |
|
Not sure |
20 |
17 |
19 |
16 |
25 |
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding and because
other candidates are omitted from the table. No other candidate received more
than 1% of the responses.
TABLE 2
BEST CHOICE FOR FRENCH PRESIDENT
Q1650_2_1 "As a resident of your country, which candidate
do you think would be the best French president for…France?’"
Base: All adults in the four EU countries
|
|
Great Britain |
France |
Italy |
Spain |
Germany |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Unweighted Base |
1,146 |
x |
1,068 |
1,075 |
1,123 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Segolene Royal |
8 |
x |
22 |
23 |
13 |
|
Nicolas Sarkozy |
3 |
x |
11 |
12 |
4 |
|
Jean-Marie Le Pen |
3 |
x |
5 |
5 |
4 |
|
Do not know enough about them to have an opinion |
67 |
x |
43 |
44 |
55 |
|
Not sure |
18 |
x |
14 |
12 |
22 |
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding and because
other candidates are omitted from the table. No other candidate received more
than 1% of the responses.
X Adults in France were not asked this question.
TABLE 3
FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS SIGNALING CHANGE
Q1655_1 "In your opinion do the French presidential
elections signal a positive or negative change of direction in Europe?"
Base: All adults in the five EU countries
|
|
Great Britain |
France |
Italy |
Spain |
Germany |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Unweighted Base |
1,146 |
1,114 |
1,068 |
1,075 |
1,123 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Positive |
12 |
32 |
33 |
32 |
20 |
|
No Change |
27 |
41 |
33 |
28 |
37 |
|
Negative |
9 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
6 |
|
Not Sure |
52 |
21 |
30 |
37 |
37 |
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.
View
the complete data tables for this survey
Methodology
This FT/Harris Poll was conducted online by Harris Interactive among a
total of 5,526 adults (aged 16 and over) within France, Germany, Great Britain
and Spain and adults (aged 18 and over) in Italy between 28th March
and 12th April 2007. Figures for age, sex, education, region and
Internet usage were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their
actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was used to
adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online. Both unweighted and weighted
bases are shown, and results/percentages represented are weighted.
Unweighted bases for the survey are: Total 5,526; France 1,114; Germany
1,123; Great Britain 1,146; Italy 1,068 and Spain 1,075.
Weighted bases for the survey are: Total 5,488; France 1,110; Germany
1,094; Great Britain 1,155; Italy 1,068 and Spain 1,061.
All surveys are subject to several sources of error. These include: sampling
error (because only a sample of a population is interviewed); measurement error
due to question wording and/or question order, deliberately or unintentionally
inaccurate responses, non-response (including refusals), interviewer effects
(when live interviewers are used) and weighting. With one exception (sampling
error) the magnitude of the errors that result cannot be estimated. There is,
therefore, no way to calculate a finite "margin of error" for any
survey and the use of these words should be avoided.
With pure probability samples, with 100 percent response rates, it is
possible to calculate the probability that the sampling error (but not other
sources of error) is not greater than some number. With a pure probability
sample of 5,526, one could say with a ninety-five percent probability that the
overall results would have a sampling error of +/-1.5 percentage point. For
individual countries, sampling error would be +/-3 percentage points. However
that does not take other sources of error into account. This online survey is
not based on a probability sample and therefore no theoretical sampling error
can be calculated.
About Harris Interactive
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Contact:
Nancy Wong
585-214-7316
nwong@harrisinteractive.com
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