Financial Times/Harris Poll: Reflections on Tony Blair

21 May 2007 - Short methodology for citation - This FT/Harris Poll was conducted online by Harris Interactive among a total of 6,585 adults (aged 16 and over) within France (1,126), Germany (1,133), Great Britain (1,109), Spain (984) and adults (aged 18 and over) in Italy (1,212) and in the United States (1,021) between 2^nd and 14^th May 2007.

Complete survey methodology

This FT/Harris Poll was conducted online by Harris Interactive among a total of 6,585 adults (aged 16 and over) within France, Germany, Great Britain, Spain, United States and adults in Italy (aged 18 and over) between 2^nd and 14th May 2007. Figures for age, sex, education, region and Internet usage were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online. Both unweighted and weighted bases are shown, and results/percentages represented are weighted.

Unweighted bases for the survey are: Total 6,585; France 1,126; Germany 1,133; Great Britain 1,109; Italy 1,212; Spain 984 and the United States 1,021.

Weighted bases for the survey are: Total 6,519; France 1,125; Germany 1,133; Great Britain 1,088; Italy 1,174; Spain 987 and the United States 1,012.

All surveys are subject to several sources of error. These include: sampling error (because only a sample of a population is interviewed); measurement error due to question wording and/or question order, deliberately or unintentionally inaccurate responses, non-response (including refusals), interviewer effects (when live interviewers are used) and weighting. With one exception (sampling error) the magnitude of the errors that result cannot be estimated. There is, therefore, no way to calculate a finite "margin of error" for any survey and the use of these words should be avoided.

With pure probability samples, with 100 percent response rates, it is possible to calculate the probability that the sampling error (but not other sources of error) is not greater than some number. With a pure probability sample of 6,585, one could say with a ninety-five percent probability that the overall results would have a sampling error of +/-1.5 percentage point. For individual countries, sampling error would be +/-3 percentage points. However that does not take other sources of error into account. This online survey is not based on a probability sample and therefore no theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

TABLE 1

IMPACT OF TONY BLAIR ON BRITAIN’S INFLUENCE IN THE WORLD

Q1600_1 "Do you think that Tony Blair has weakened, strengthened or had no impact on Britain's role and level of influence in the world?"

Base: All EU adults in five countries and US adults

	Great Britain	France	Italy	Spain	Germany	United States
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Unweighted Base	1109	1126	1212	984	1133	1021

Strengthened (NET)	23	45	53	32	26	42
Strengthened	5	7	26	12	8	16
Somewhat strengthened	17	39	28	19	19	25
Had no impact	10	13	9	10	22	10
Weakened (NET)	60	23	22	38	36	24
Somewhat weakened	28	21	15	26	25	18
Weakened	33	2	7	13	12	6
Not sure	7	19	16	20	15	25

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

The British are most negative, with 60% saying that Blair has weakened Britain’s role and level of influence in the world. A plurality in France and majority in Italy are positive, saying he’s strengthened Britain’s role, etc.; and a plurality in the US is more positive and in Germany is more negative than positive, and the Spanish are divided.

TABLE 2

TONY BLAIR’S CONTRIBUTION TO EUROPE

Q1610_1 "Do you think Tony Blair has made a positive, negative or neutral contribution to Europe over the past 10 years?"

Base: All EU adults in five countries and US adults

	Great Britain	France	Italy	Spain	Germany	United States
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Unweighted Base	1109	1126	1212	984	1133	1021

Negative contribution	39	32	22	24	34	8
Neutral contribution	27	39	29	23	34	17
Positive contribution	22	14	36	31	19	53
Not sure	12	14	13	21	14	22

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

53% of US adults saying that Blair has made a positive contribution to Europe is the most noteworthy statistic. Those in all 5 European countries, including his own, are decidedly mixed in their assessment.

TABLE 3

TONY BLAIR’S POLITICAL STANCE

Q1615_1 "Thinking about Tony Blair's political stance, would you describe it as conservative, socialist, or centrist?"

Base: All EU adults in five countries and US adults

	Great Britain	France	Italy	Spain	Germany	United States
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Unweighted Base	1109	1126	1212	984	1133	1021

Conservative	20	33	26	41	40	30
Centrist	31	33	34	28	26	20
Socialist	15	10	13	10	6	7
Not sure	34	24	27	21	27	43

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

That only 15% of people (adults) in Britain think that Blair is socialist is remarkable. He has clearly moved the Labour party from the left to centrist or Conservative.

What is important is how few everywhere (in the five countries and the US) think of him as socialist.

He has also been able to move with the issues – people seem to have a hard time pinning down what Blair is – one-third of British adults aren’t sure of his political stance at all.

TABLE 4

TONY BLAIR’S POLITICAL RECORD—HEALTH CARE

Q1620_1_1 "From what you know about Tony Blair's political record, do you think that he has had a positive, negative or no impact on the following in Britain: Healthcare System"

Base: All EU adults in five countries and US adults

	Great Britain	France	Italy	Spain	Germany	United States
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Unweighted Base	1109	1126	1212	984	1133	1021

Negative	50	27	8	12	13	5
No impact	22	18	18	22	25	17
Positive	18	14	22	20	13	19
Not sure	10	41	52	46	49	60

Outside UK Blair is generally unpopular on this topic—he has thrown £billions into the healthcare system and much has improved, so this may come as somewhat of a shock to many. Not surprisingly, those in the US are not likely to know what Blair’s political record is on this issue – even more so than those in Europe are not likely to know.

TABLE 5

TONY BLAIR’S POLITICAL RECORD—TRANSPORT

Q1620_1_2 "From what you know about Tony Blair's political record, do you think that he has had a positive, negative or no impact on the following in Britain: Transport"

Base: All EU adults in five countries and US adults

	Great Britain	France	Italy	Spain	Germany	United States
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Unweighted Base	1109	1126	1212	984	1133	1021

Negative	41	18	7	9	6	4
No impact	35	20	19	24	31	16
Positive	12	19	22	19	9	20
Not sure	13	42	53	49	54	60

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

While most of Europe is unsure of Blair’s record on transport, those in his country are more likely to say it is negative.

TABLE 6

TONY BLAIR’S POLITICAL RECORD—FOREIGN POLICY

Q1620_1_3 "From what you know about Tony Blair's political record, do you think that he has had a positive, negative or no impact on the following in Britain: Foreign Policy"

Base: All EU adults in five countries and US adults

	Great Britain	France	Italy	Spain	Germany	United States
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Unweighted Base	1109	1126	1212	984	1133	1021

Negative	56	51	34	57	50	27
No impact	15	9	8	5	5	4
Positive	15	18	35	20	22	37
Not sure	14	22	23	19	22	32

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Overwhelmingly negative among adults in each country, except in Italy where there is slightly more support for Blair – Italian adults are split 35% positive and 34% negative about Blair’s impact on foreign policy in Britain. In the US adults (37%) responded positive.

TABLE 7

TONY BLAIR’S POLITICAL RECORD—ECONOMIC POLICY

Q1620_1_3 "From what you know about Tony Blair's political record, do you think that he has had a positive, negative or no impact on the following in Britain: Economic Policy"

Base: All EU adults in five countries and US adults

	Great Britain	France	Italy	Spain	Germany	United States
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Unweighted Base	1109	1126	1212	984	1133	1021

Negative	29	8	8	13	13	6
No impact	22	11	12	14	15	11
Positive	31	52	48	41	39	37
Not sure	17	30	32	32	33	45

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

On balance, the support for Blair and his impact on the economy are more positive than negative. Blair gets relatively good marks –and this reflects the fact that for 10 years every quarter, the economy has grown – and this is a major achievement for a leader. Lower levels in Great Britain may only reflect his overall unpopularity.

TABLE 8

TONY BLAIR’S POLITICAL RECORD—EMPLOYMENT

Q1620_1_3 "From what you know about Tony Blair's political record, do you think that he has had a positive, negative or no impact on the following in Britain: Employment"

Base: All EU adults in five countries and US adults

	Great Britain	France	Italy	Spain	Germany	United States
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Unweighted Base	1109	1126	1212	984	1133	1021

Negative	25	6	7	11	10	5
No impact	29	10	14	18	21	13
Positive	34	53	34	28	31	24
Not sure	12	30	45	43	38	58

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Negative responses were higher in Britain (25%) and France (53%) had highest positive response.

TABLE 9

VOTING FOR TONY BLAIR

Q1625_1 "If Tony Blair was a politician in your country, do you think that you would vote for him?"

Base: All EU adults in five countries and US adults

	Great Britain	France	Italy	Spain	Germany	United States
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Unweighted Base	0	1126	1212	984	1133	1021

Yes	-	17	28	18	13	32
No	-	51	40	58	62	28
Not sure	-	32	32	24	24	40

"-" Not Applicable

Not many outside of Britain would vote for Blair if he were a politician in their country, with Italian adults a bit more supportive (28%), as well as Americans (32%).

TABLE 10

COMMITMENT OF GORDON BROWN

Q1626_1 "Thinking now about Gordon Brown, who is likely to be Tony Blair's successor, do you think that he is likely to be more committed, less committed, or have about the same level of commitment to the European Union as Tony Blair?"

Base: All EU adults in five countries and US adults

	Great Britain	France	Italy	Spain	Germany	United States
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Unweighted Base	1109	1126	1212	984	1133	1021

Less of a commitment than Tony Blair	20	12	6	6	6	7
About the same level of commitment as Tony Blair	44	19	30	33	31	14
More of a commitment than Tony Blair	17	11	19	13	16	6
Not sure	19	58	45	48	47	73

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Americans don’t know.

On Gordon Brown’s commitment to Europe, significant don’t knows outside of Britain and within the country, a plurality expects him to continue in the Blair tradition with regard to commitment to the EU.

TABLE 11

EFFECTS ON PERSONAL FREEDOM IN GREAT BRITAIN

Q1635 "Since Tony Blair came into power 10 years ago, what effect, if any, do you think he has had on your personal freedom? Do you feel ..."

Base: All GB Adults ages 16 and over

	Total
	%
Unweighted Base	1109

More free (NET)	6
much more free	1
somewhat more free	5
no different - there has been no change	30
Less free (NET)	59
somewhat less free	30
much less free	29
Not sure	5

59% of British adults say they feel less free than 10 years ago. The fact that so many feel less free should be of some concern.

TABLE 12

THOUGHTS ON BRITISH SOCIETY AND INTEGRATION OVER PAST 10 YEARS

Q1640 "Thinking about British society and integration over the past 10 years, do you think that it is …"

Base: All GB Adults ages 16 and over

	Total
	%
Unweighted Base	1109

More Integrated (NET)	26
Much more integrated than 10 years ago	9
Somewhat more integrated than 10 years ago	17
About the same as it was 10 years ago	14
Less Integrated (NET)	48
Somewhat less integrated than 10 years ago	26
Much less integrated than 10 years ago	22
Not sure	12

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Nearly 1 in 2 adults in GB feel there is less integration than 10 years ago.

TABLE 13

TONY BLAIR’S ANNOUNCEMENT OF DEPARTURE

Q1645 "As you may know, Tony Blair decided to pre-announce his departure, telling voters in 2005 that he would not be standing for election again. No other Prime Minister has ever done this. Do you feel that it was..."

Base: All GB Adults ages 16 and over

	Total	Male	Female
	%	%	%
Unweighted Base	1109	558	551

A political mistake	37	43	31
A clever political strategy	37	33	42
Not sure	25	24	27

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Attitudes are completely split as to whether it was a political mistake or not for Blair to announce so early he wouldn’t be standing for election again. What’s interesting here is the gender divide – women seem to like him more and are more likely than men are to say this was clever rather than a mistake. Men are exactly reversed on their attitude.

TABLE 14

POLITICAL SPECTRUM

Q1654 "Thinking about where you stand on the political spectrum, where do you think Tony Blair stands in relation to you?"

Tony Blair

Base: All GB Adults ages 16 and over

	Total	Male	Female
	%	%	%
Unweighted Base	1109	558	551

More to the left	26	30	21
About where you stand	18	19	16
More to the right	21	27	14
Not sure	36	24	49

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Half of women are not sure where Blair stands in relation to them, on the political spectrum.

TABLE 15

Q1655 "Thinking about where you stand on the political spectrum, where do you think Gordon Brown stands in relation to you?"

Gordon Brown

Base: All GB Adults ages 16 and over

	Total	Male	Female
	%	%	%
Unweighted Base	1109	558	551

More to the left	28	33	22
About where you stand	16	21	11
More to the right	16	18	14
Not sure	40	28	54

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Slight tendency to see him on the left, but many are unsure of where Brown stands. This is especially true of women.

TABLE 16

Q1656 "Thinking about where you stand on the political spectrum, where do you think David Cameron stands in relation to you?"

David Cameron

Base: All GB Adults ages 16 and over

	Total	Male	Female
	%	%	%
Unweighted Base	1109	558	551

More to the left	12	14	10
About where you stand	24	28	20
More to the right	25	30	20
Not sure	38	28	49

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

25% see Cameron more to the right.

TABLE 17

GREATEST THREAT TO GLOBAL STABILITY

Q1660_1 "Which one, if any, of the following countries do you think is the greatest threat to global stability?"

Base: All EU££ adults in five countries

	Great Britain	France	Italy	Spain	Germany	United States
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Unweighted Base	1109	1126	1212	984	1133	1021

US	35	29	27	47	33	14
Iran	20	32	26	16	20	27
Iraq	14	11	15	16	15	9
China	11	15	19	8	11	17
North Korea	11	7	6	8	9	23
Russia	3	3	1	1	6	3
Israel	*	*	*	*	*	*
Muslim Countries (not specified)	-	-	*	*	*	-
Saudi Arabia	-	*	*	-	-	*
Pakistan	*	*	*	-	-	-
Afghanistan	-	-	*	-	-	*
Turkey	-	-	*	-	-	N/A
Middle East (country not specified)	-	-	*	-	-	N/A
No one county - all are a threat	-	-	*	-	*	-
Morocco	-	-	*	*	-	N/A
No country - terrorist organisations	-	-	*	-	-	-
Palestine	-	-	*	-	*	N/A
Africa (country not specified)	-	-	*	-	-	N/A
India	-	-	*	-	-	N/A
No country - religious fundamentalists are the biggest threat	-	*	-	-	-	-
Other	*	*	*	*	*	1
None	5	3	4	3	6	6
Not sure	*	*	-	-	-	-
Not stated / not answered / refused	*	-	*	-	-	-