Financial Times/Harris Poll: EU Citizens Want Referendum on Treaty
18 June 2007 - Short methodology for use when publishing results
This FT/Harris Poll was conducted online by Harris
Interactive among a total of 6,169 adults (aged 16 and over) within France
(1,012), Germany (1,014), Great Britain (1,025), Spain (1,010) and the United
States (1,018) and adults (aged 18 and over) in Italy (1,090) between 31st
May and 12th June 2007.
Complete survey methodology
This FT/Harris Poll was conducted online by Harris
Interactive among a total of 6,169 adults (aged 16 and over) within France,
Germany, Great Britain, Spain, and the United States and adults (aged 18 and
over) in Italy between 31st May and 12th June 2007.
Figures for age, sex, education, region and Internet usage were weighted where
necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the
population. Propensity score weighting was used to adjust for respondents’
propensity to be online.
All surveys are subject to several sources of error. These
include: sampling error (because only a sample of a population is interviewed);
measurement error due to question wording and/or question order, deliberately or
unintentionally inaccurate responses, non-response (including refusals),
interviewer effects (when live interviewers are used) and weighting. With one
exception (sampling error) the magnitude of the errors that result cannot be
estimated. There is, therefore, no way to calculate a finite "margin of
error" for any survey and the use of these words should be avoided.
With pure probability samples, with 100 percent response
rates, it is possible to calculate the probability that the sampling error (but
not other sources of error) is not greater than some number. With a pure
probability sample of 6,169, one could say with a ninety-five percent
probability that the overall results would have a sampling error of +/-1.5
percentage point. For individual countries, sampling error would be +/-3
percentage points. However that does not take other sources of error into
account. This online survey is not based on a probability sample and therefore
no theoretical sampling error can be calculated.
TABLE 1
KNOWLEDGE OF EU CONSTITUTIONAL TREATY
"Are you aware of what the European Union’s
constitutional treaty is?"
Base: All EU adults in five countries and US adults
|
|
Great Britain |
France |
Italy |
Spain |
Germany |
United States |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Unweighted base |
1025 |
1012 |
1090 |
1010 |
1014 |
1018 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aware (NET) |
45 |
52 |
72 |
77 |
54 |
26 |
|
Extremely aware |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
Very aware |
8 |
6 |
16 |
17 |
8 |
4 |
|
Somewhat aware |
35 |
46 |
55 |
58 |
44 |
21 |
|
Not aware (NET) |
55 |
48 |
28 |
23 |
46 |
74 |
|
Just heard the name |
30 |
43 |
23 |
19 |
35 |
27 |
|
Never heard of it |
24 |
5 |
5 |
4 |
11 |
48 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
Many in Great Britain are not aware of the EU treaty,
in fact one-quarter say they have never heard of it. In the other European
countries, majorities are aware of the treaty, with Italians and the Spanish
being most aware.
TABLE 2
REWORKED TREATY TO REFERENDUM
"Do you think that a reworked European Union
constitutional treaty needs to be put to a referendum in those countries that
have not already approved it?"
Base: All EU adults in five countries and US adults who are
at least somewhat aware of E U Treaty
|
|
Great Britain |
France |
Italy |
Spain |
Germany |
United States |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Unweighted base |
479 |
601 |
851 |
827 |
576 |
324 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yes |
69 |
64 |
68 |
75 |
71 |
55 |
|
No |
9 |
25 |
20 |
10 |
22 |
11 |
|
Not Sure |
22 |
10 |
12 |
15 |
7 |
34 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
There is a strong consensus as at least two-thirds
across all the countries believe the reworked EU treaty needs to be put to a
referendum.
TABLE 3
PERMANENT PRESIDENT
"Do you think that the EU should have a permanent
president?"
Base: All EU adults in five countries and US adults
|
|
Great Britain |
France |
Italy |
Spain |
Germany |
United States |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Unweighted base |
1025 |
1012 |
1090 |
1010 |
1014 |
1018 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yes |
14 |
38 |
34 |
54 |
48 |
11 |
|
No |
52 |
44 |
59 |
27 |
35 |
32 |
|
Not Sure |
34 |
17 |
7 |
18 |
17 |
57 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
There is definitely a split in this question as a
majority of those in Spain and close to half of Germans think there should be a
permanent president while majorities in Italy and Great Britain do not think so.
French adults are split with a plurality say no to a permanent president.
TABLE 4
EU FOREIGN MINISTER
"Do you think that the EU should have a foreign
minister?"
Base: All EU adults in five countries and US adults
|
|
Great Britain |
France |
Italy |
Spain |
Germany |
United States |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Unweighted base |
1025 |
1012 |
1090 |
1010 |
1014 |
1018 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yes |
41 |
69 |
81 |
75 |
63 |
43 |
|
No |
28 |
16 |
14 |
16 |
26 |
12 |
|
Not Sure |
31 |
15 |
5 |
9 |
11 |
46 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
Having a foreign minister, on the other hand, receives
strong consensus across most of the countries. Great Britain is the only country
where a majority does not support this idea.
TABLE 5
NEW EU MEMBERS
"Do you think the European Union should continue to take
in new member countries?"
Base: All EU adults in five countries and US adults
|
|
Great Britain |
France |
Italy |
Spain |
Germany |
United States |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Unweighted base |
1025 |
1012 |
1090 |
1010 |
1014 |
1018 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yes |
29 |
20 |
48 |
35 |
33 |
46 |
|
No |
47 |
67 |
41 |
40 |
55 |
5 |
|
Not Sure |
23 |
13 |
11 |
25 |
12 |
49 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
Italy is the only European country, among the five EU
countries surveyed, where taking in new member countries outweighs not taking
them in. France and Germany are the two countries where anti-expansion feelings
are the strongest.
TABLE 6
ALLOWING TURKEY INTO EU
"Do you think that Turkey should be invited to join the
EU?"
Base: All EU adults in five countries and US adults
|
|
Great Britain |
France |
Italy |
Spain |
Germany |
United States |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Unweighted base |
1025 |
1012 |
1090 |
1010 |
1014 |
1018 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yes |
23 |
16 |
31 |
26 |
21 |
32 |
|
No |
46 |
71 |
55 |
46 |
66 |
13 |
|
Not Sure |
31 |
13 |
14 |
28 |
13 |
55 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
Across all countries, not inviting Turkey outweighs
inviting Turkey into the EU. Spain and Great Britain adults, however, show some
hesitancy as over one-quarter in both countries are unsure.
TABLE 7
ALLOWING TURKEY INTO EU WITH REFORMS
"If Turkey were to implement reforms desired by some EU
member states, should it be invited to join the EU?"
Base: Adults who were not sure or did not think Turkey should
be invited to join the EU
|
|
Great Britain |
France |
Italy |
Spain |
Germany |
United States |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Unweighted base |
769 |
839 |
751 |
726 |
786 |
655 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yes |
21 |
21 |
32 |
36 |
38 |
27 |
|
No |
43 |
64 |
54 |
36 |
49 |
7 |
|
Not Sure |
36 |
15 |
14 |
27 |
14 |
66 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
The idea of adding additional reforms for Turkey to
have to make does not overwhelmingly change people’s minds about inviting them
to join the EU, but it does move at least a third of Italian, Spanish and German
adults.
TABLE 8
TOTAL ALLOWING TURKEY INTO EU WITH REFORMS
Total for allowing Turkey into the EU (combining yeses from
Table 6 and 7)
Base: All EU adults in five countries and US adults
|
|
Great Britain |
France |
Italy |
Spain |
Germany |
United States |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Unweighted base |
1025 |
1012 |
1090 |
1010 |
1014 |
1018 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yes |
40 |
34 |
53 |
53 |
51 |
50 |
|
No |
33 |
54 |
37 |
27 |
38 |
5 |
|
Not Sure |
28 |
12 |
10 |
20 |
11 |
45 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
Looking at the combined yes reponses, by adding in
reforms a majority of adults in Germany, Spain and Italy are now in favor of
Turkey being invited to join the EU while a majority of French adults still say
no. Great Britain is most divided.
TABLE 8
ROLE OF EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
"Do you think that the primary role of the European
Central Bank should be to promote economic growth, or to guarantee stable
prices?"
Base: All EU adults in five countries and US adults
|
|
Great Britain |
France |
Italy |
Spain |
Germany |
United States |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Unweighted base |
1025 |
1012 |
1090 |
1010 |
1014 |
1018 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Guarantee stable prices |
45 |
44 |
45 |
60 |
58 |
27 |
|
Promote economic growth |
31 |
47 |
48 |
34 |
33 |
35 |
|
Not Sure |
24 |
9 |
6 |
6 |
9 |
38 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
While a majority of Spanish and German adults and just
under half of British adults say the Bank’s primary role should be
guaranteeing stable prices, France and Italy are more divided with promoting
economic growth just edging out pricing stability.
TABLE 9
COMPETITION WITH ASIA
"Do you think that the EU should be doing more to protect
its citizens and workforce from competition from low-cost manufacturers such as
those in Asia?"
Base: All EU adults in five countries and US adults
|
|
Great Britain |
France |
Italy |
Spain |
Germany |
United States |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Unweighted base |
1025 |
1012 |
1090 |
1010 |
1014 |
1018 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yes |
71 |
86 |
90 |
90 |
83 |
48 |
|
No |
12 |
7 |
6 |
3 |
11 |
11 |
|
Not Sure |
16 |
7 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
41 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
Clearly, there is a very strong consensus that the EU
should be doing more to protect those within its borders from competition.
TABLE 10
TONY BLAIR AS EU PRESIDENT
"Do you think that Tony Blair would make a good full-time
president of the European Union?"
Base: All EU adults in five countries and US adults
|
|
Great Britain |
France |
Italy |
Spain |
Germany |
United States |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Unweighted base |
1025 |
1012 |
1090 |
1010 |
1014 |
1018 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yes |
20 |
16 |
27 |
17 |
12 |
40 |
|
No |
60 |
53 |
46 |
56 |
64 |
20 |
|
Not Sure |
20 |
32 |
27 |
27 |
24 |
40 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
While Tony Blair may be looking for employment, the
presidency of the EU is not where he should look. US adults, showing how they
feel about one of the US’s strongest allies, are the only ones to say he would
make a good president of the EU, but it’s still not a majority.
TABLE 11
GREATEST THREAT TO GLOBAL STABILITY
Q1660_1 "Which one, if any, of the following countries do
you think is the greatest threat to global stability?"
Base: All EU adults in five countries
|
|
Great Britain |
France |
Italy |
Spain |
Germany |
United States |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Unweighted Base |
1025 |
1012 |
1090 |
1010 |
1014 |
1018 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
US |
30 |
31 |
21 |
46 |
32 |
11 |
|
Iran |
13 |
20 |
22 |
14 |
15 |
23 |
|
Iraq |
12 |
10 |
11 |
10 |
12 |
10 |
|
China |
16 |
22 |
26 |
12 |
18 |
20 |
|
North Korea |
14 |
7 |
9 |
7 |
7 |
25 |
|
Russia |
6 |
5 |
5 |
2 |
8 |
3 |
|
Israel |
* |
* |
* |
1 |
* |
* |
|
Pakistan |
* |
* |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
Muslim Countries (not specified) |
- |
- |
- |
* |
- |
- |
|
Saudi Arabia |
- |
- |
- |
* |
- |
- |
|
Afghanistan |
- |
- |
- |
- |
* |
- |
|
Romania |
- |
- |
* |
- |
* |
- |
|
Syria |
- |
* |
* |
- |
- |
- |
|
No one county - all are a threat |
- |
- |
* |
- |
- |
* |
|
Palestine |
- |
- |
* |
- |
- |
- |
|
Africa (country not specified) |
- |
* |
* |
- |
- |
- |
|
India |
- |
- |
- |
* |
* |
* |
|
Other |
- |
* |
* |
1 |
- |
1 |
|
None |
8 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
8 |
6 |
|
Not sure |
1 |
* |
* |
* |
* |
* |
*Less Than 0.5%
"-" Not Applicable
|
